Release forecasts

Apple OS beta release forecasts

History-based public-release and next-milestone ranges, with the comparison cohort, sample size, spread, confidence, and stale-data safeguards available for every estimate.

Calculated Jul 31, 2026 · Refreshes after Sanity updates

Tracked Cycles: 6
Active Forecasts: 6
Paused / Stale: 0
Backtest Median Error: 7d

Current cycles

Active forecasts

Forecasts pause automatically when the latest recorded milestone is more than 60 days old or the entire historical window has elapsed.

Next milestone forecast

Beta 5

Aug 1, 2026 – Aug 3, 2026

Historical median Aug 2, 2026

Estimated public release window

Sep 7, 2026 – Sep 15, 2026

12 comparable cycles · 100% label agreement · Higher historical confidence

Methodology & evidence

Evidence note. High: 12 same-position cycles with a 8-day middle-50% spread.

Safeguard status. Current estimate based on the latest recorded milestone and comparable historical cycles.

Comparable cohort

iOS .0 cycles at Beta 4

26.0 18.0 17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0

Range definition

25th–75th percentile of observed days from Beta 4 to public release.

Prior-only backtest. 7-day median error; 60% inside the historical range across 15 tests.

Next milestone forecast

Beta 5

Jul 30, 2026 – Aug 3, 2026

Historical median Aug 1, 2026

Estimated public release window

Sep 7, 2026 – Sep 11, 2026

5 comparable cycles · 100% label agreement · Moderate historical confidence

Methodology & evidence

Evidence note. Medium: 5 comparable cycles with a 4-day middle-50% spread.

Safeguard status. Current estimate based on the latest recorded milestone and comparable historical cycles.

Comparable cohort

iPadOS .0 cycles at Beta 4

26.0 18.0 17.0 15.0 14.0

Range definition

25th–75th percentile of observed days from Beta 4 to public release.

Next milestone forecast

Beta 5

Aug 2, 2026 – Aug 3, 2026

Historical median Aug 3, 2026

Estimated public release window

Sep 15, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026

6 comparable cycles · 100% label agreement · Low historical confidence

Methodology & evidence

Evidence note. Low: limited history (6 cycles) or a wide 33-day middle-50% spread.

Safeguard status. Current estimate based on the latest recorded milestone and comparable historical cycles.

Comparable cohort

macOS .0 cycles at Beta 4

26.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0

Range definition

25th–75th percentile of observed days from Beta 4 to public release.

Prior-only backtest. 34-day median error; 0% inside the historical range across 3 tests.

Next milestone forecast

Beta 5

Aug 2, 2026 – Aug 3, 2026

Historical median Aug 3, 2026

Estimated public release window

Sep 9, 2026 – Sep 18, 2026

11 comparable cycles · 100% label agreement · Higher historical confidence

Methodology & evidence

Evidence note. High: 11 same-position cycles with a 9-day middle-50% spread.

Safeguard status. Current estimate based on the latest recorded milestone and comparable historical cycles.

Comparable cohort

watchOS .0 cycles at Beta 4

26.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0

Range definition

25th–75th percentile of observed days from Beta 4 to public release.

Prior-only backtest. 5-day median error; 50% inside the historical range across 8 tests.

Next milestone forecast

Beta 5

Aug 1, 2026 – Aug 3, 2026

Historical median Aug 3, 2026

Estimated public release window

Sep 7, 2026 – Sep 15, 2026

10 comparable cycles · 100% label agreement · Higher historical confidence

Methodology & evidence

Evidence note. High: 10 same-position cycles with a 8-day middle-50% spread.

Safeguard status. Current estimate based on the latest recorded milestone and comparable historical cycles.

Comparable cohort

tvOS .0 cycles at Beta 4

26.0 18.0 17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0

Range definition

25th–75th percentile of observed days from Beta 4 to public release.

Prior-only backtest. 2-day median error; 71% inside the historical range across 7 tests.

Next milestone forecast

Beta 5

Aug 3, 2026 – Aug 11, 2026

Historical median Aug 3, 2026

Estimated public release window

Sep 13, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026

3 comparable cycles · 100% label agreement · Low historical confidence

Methodology & evidence

Evidence note. Low: limited history (3 cycles) or a wide 34-day middle-50% spread.

Safeguard status. Current estimate based on the latest recorded milestone and comparable historical cycles.

Comparable cohort

visionOS .0 cycles at Beta 4

26.0 2.0 1.0

Range definition

25th–75th percentile of observed days from Beta 4 to public release.

Historical backtest

In 33 rolling tests, each release was estimated using only cycles already public at that point—never later data. The median absolute error was 7 days, and the actual date fell inside the historical 25th–75th percentile window in 55% of tests. Historical performance is not a promise of future accuracy.